October new vehicle sales set to slow for sixth consecutive month


– US auto sales in October are expected to slow for a sixth consecutive month as low inventories and high prices continue to constrain the industry.

Posted: October 27, 2021 at 12:13 PM EDT|Update: 19 minutes ago

ATLANTA, October 27, 2021 / PRNewswire / – US auto sales in October are expected to be hit hard by supply limitations due to the chip shortage, leading to a new low for the 2021 market. According to a forecast released today hui by Cox Automotive, the pace of sales, or seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), is expected to fall to 11.8 million units in October, from 12.2 million in September and on October 2020 rate of 16.4 million.

Cox Automotive (PRNewsfoto / Cox Automotive)

Cox Automotive predicts October auto sales in the United States will be hit hard by supply limitations

Sales volume in October is also expected to take a hit, falling to just 950,000 units, down almost 30% from October 2020 and down nearly 6% from September. There is one less selling day in October compared to last year, but two more days than in September. However, with supply levels so low, the number of days to sell will have minimal impact on the results for the month.

“October’s new vehicle sales will be downright scary when announced next week,” said Charlie chesbrough, Senior Economist, Cox Automotive. “We expect to see direct evidence that the chip shortage continues to impact all automakers, even those who have done an outstanding job in dealing with this ongoing crisis.”

The expected decline in October would be the sixth consecutive month of declining sales pace and the lowest October volume since 2010, when the market was in the early days of the Great Recession resuming. It would also be the lowest sales volume since april 2020 when the market was initially slammed by the first wave of COVID-19 and sales hit an all-time low of 717,063.

The automotive market started the year with tight supply, but the situation gradually deteriorated. Inventory levels are half of what they were a year ago, and supply chain issues continue to disrupt production. The coming months are expected to be particularly difficult as sales will be stifled by the lack of products available on dealer lots. However, many OEM supply issues are expected to improve slightly in the coming months. The outlook for 2022 is that tight supplies will remain a strong headwind for the industry. Cox Automotive predicts that total new vehicle sales will approach 15 million in 2021 and rise to 16.3 million in 2022.

October 2021 Highlights of sales forecasts

  • New light vehicle sales are expected to fall to 950,000 units, down 410,000 units, almost 30% lower than last year. Compared to last month, sales are expected to fall by 63,000, a decline of almost 6%.
  • SARRE in October 2021 is estimated at 11.8 million, down from September’s 12.2 million chip rate and down from last October’s 16.4 million level.

October 2021 Forecast of new vehicle sales

Sales forecasts1

Market share

Segment

21st of October

20 oct.

Sep-21

YOY%

MOM%

21st of October

Sep-21

MOM

Mid-size SUV / crossover

180,000

233 257

196,968

-22.8%

-8.6%

18.9%

19.4%

-0.5%

Full-size pickup truck

155,000

213,240

156 188

-27.3%

-0.8%

16.3%

15.4%

0.9%

Compact / crossover SUV

125,000

215,535

133,152

-42.0%

-6.1%

13.2%

13.1%

0.0%

Compact car

65,000

93,444

70,476

-30.4%

-7.8%

6.8%

7.0%

-0.1%

Intermediate car

50,000

104,221

53 645

-52.0%

-6.8%

5.3%

5.3%

0.0%

Total2

950,000

1,360,554

1,012,797

-30.2%

-6.2%

1 Cox Automotive Industry Insights Data

2 Total includes segments not shown

All percentages are based on gross volume, not daily sales rate.

About Cox Automobile
Cox Automotive Inc. makes it easy for everyone to buy, sell, own and use vehicles. The more than 27,000 team members and family of brands of the global company, including Autotrader®, Dealer.com®, Dealertrack®, Dickinson Fleet Services, Kelley Blue Book®, Manheim®, NextGear Capital®, VinSolutions® , vAuto® and Xtime®, are passionate about helping millions of car buyers, 40,000 car dealership customers across five continents and many more in the automotive industry to prosper for generations to come. Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., a private company, Atlantabased company with an annual turnover of almost $ 20 billion. www.coxautoinc.com

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SOURCE Cox Automotive

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